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feat(graph): association is not causation

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Adds co_occurs_with, temporally_precedes, possibly_caused_by and
asserted_by to the relation vocabulary with Causal and Hypothetical
predicates. Entities mentioned together now co-occur rather than being
'related'; association hypotheses record possibly_caused_by and their
basis (temporal association only); caused_by is reserved for explicit
operator statements and nothing automatic writes it. Documented in
docs/graph.md and checked end to end.
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Andy Dixon
2026-08-19 19:16:15 +01:00
parent 814057b680
commit 37b9f0e2f5
6 changed files with 60 additions and 5 deletions
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docs/graph.md
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@@ -10,7 +10,17 @@ Extraction is deterministic and conservative: hostnames (`atlas.local`), hyphena
## Relationships
Edges carry a relation from the shared vocabulary (`related_to`, `discussed_with`, `caused_by`, `supports`, `contradicts`, `depends_on`, `belongs_to`, `observed_during`, `derived_from`, `similar_to`, `follows`), a confidence, a source, a count of reinforcements and the event that produced them. Co-mention in one message yields `discussed_with` (speaker → entity) and `related_to` (entity ↔ entity) at low confidence; repeats raise the count. Operators can add typed edges with higher confidence.
Edges carry a relation from the shared vocabulary (`co_occurs_with`, `related_to`, `discussed_with`, `temporally_precedes`, `possibly_caused_by`, `caused_by`, `supports`, `contradicts`, `depends_on`, `belongs_to`, `observed_during`, `derived_from`, `similar_to`, `follows`, `asserted_by`), a confidence, a source, a count of reinforcements and the event that produced them. Co-mention in one message yields `discussed_with` (speaker → entity) and `co_occurs_with` (entity ↔ entity) at low confidence; repeats raise the count but never change the kind. Operators can add typed edges with higher confidence.
## Association is not causation
Repeated association is evidence of association, nothing more. The vocabulary keeps the distinction explicit:
- `co_occurs_with` and `temporally_precedes` record what was observed together or in order;
- `possibly_caused_by` is a **hypothesis**: the association process proposes it for notable events close in time, always as a `hypothesis` belief with the alternatives "coincidence" and "a third factor caused both", and a prediction that the effect should recur after the cause;
- `caused_by` is reserved for established causes: an explicit operator statement or a correction. Nothing automatic writes it.
Speech acts are not world events: questions, hypotheticals, requests and consecutive turns by one speaker never seed a causal hypothesis.
`entity_links` record which memories, beliefs, events, goals and predictions involve an entity, so the entity page answers "where has this come up".