feat: add beliefs with evidence-derived confidence, contradictions and corrections

Phase 6. Beliefs are propositions with a prior set by epistemic kind and a confidence computed from typed evidence: sigmoid(logit(prior) + slope × (support × diversity − opposition)), where support from a single source is discounted so repetition cannot manufacture certainty, and bounds keep the mind away from absolute certainty. Every evaluation stores its breakdown and appends a version row protected by the append-only trigger; the belief page shows the arithmetic, evidence for and against, alternatives, contradictions and history. Contradiction detection is deterministic first (negation plus token overlap): a hit emits contradiction_detected, links both beliefs and makes each counter-evidence for the other so both trend to contested. Operators can assert beliefs (their statement is the evidence), add evidence, mark a belief wrong (pinned rejected, history kept) and forbid an inference; do-not-infer corrections block matching hypotheses. Retracting a memory retracts the evidence that cited it and re-evaluates the beliefs concerned. The associate process proposes low-confidence causal hypotheses from co-occurring notable observations, and the hypothesis handler turns admitted ones into beliefs with automatic alternatives, closing demo scenarios 1 and 2 without any model call.
2026-06-21 22:14:12 +01:00
parent 03631e5685
commit 73e5753a91
29 changed files with 2344 additions and 20 deletions
@@ -0,0 +1,76 @@
+package cognition
+
+import (
+	"context"
+	"sort"
+	"strings"
+	"time"
+
+	"github.com/andydixon/noema/internal/attention"
+	"github.com/andydixon/noema/internal/brain"
+	"github.com/andydixon/noema/internal/workspace"
+	"github.com/andydixon/noema/pkg/events"
+	"github.com/andydixon/noema/pkg/ids"
+)
+
+// Associate proposes low-confidence causal hypotheses when two notable
+// observations arrive close together ("deployment at 09:10, latency at
+// 09:12"). It is deliberately weak: confidence comes from the belief layer's
+// arithmetic over the two observations, never from the wording.
+type Associate struct {
+	Window time.Duration // how far back an earlier observation may lie
+}
+
+// Name implements brain.Process.
+func (Associate) Name() string { return "associate" }
+
+// Observe implements brain.Process.
+func (a Associate) Observe(_ context.Context, s *brain.State) ([]brain.Candidate, error) {
+	if s.Services.Beliefs == nil {
+		return nil, nil
+	}
+	window := a.Window
+	if window <= 0 {
+		window = 15 * time.Minute
+	}
+	var out []brain.Candidate
+	for _, ev := range s.NewEvents {
+		if strings.HasPrefix(ev.Source, "brain") || ev.Type != events.Observation {
+			continue
+		}
+		laterToks := workspace.Tokenise(ev.Summary)
+		laterU := urgency(laterToks)
+		if laterU < 0.4 {
+			continue
+		}
+		for _, it := range s.Workspace.WorkingMemory {
+			if it.Kind != "observation" || it.SourceEvent.IsZero() || it.SourceEvent == ev.ID {
+				continue
+			}
+			if ev.OccurredAt.Sub(it.TouchedAt) > window || it.TouchedAt.After(ev.OccurredAt) {
+				continue
+			}
+			earlierToks := workspace.Tokenise(it.Content)
+			if urgency(earlierToks) < 0.3 && workspace.Overlap(earlierToks, toSet(laterToks)) < 0.2 {
+				continue
+			}
+			pair := []string{string(it.SourceEvent), string(ev.ID)}
+			sort.Strings(pair)
+			prop := truncate(it.Content, 100) + " may have caused: " + truncate(ev.Summary, 100)
+			out = append(out, brain.Candidate{Kind: "hypothesis", Subject: strings.Join(pair, "+"), Summary: "hypothesis: " + prop,
+				Content:    map[string]any{"proposition": prop, "cause_event": string(it.SourceEvent), "effect_event": string(ev.ID), "gap_seconds": int(ev.OccurredAt.Sub(it.TouchedAt).Seconds()), "source_event": string(ev.ID)},
+				Features:   attention.Features{Salience: 0.5*ev.Salience + 0.2, Novelty: 0.6, Consequence: 0.6, Urgency: laterU * 0.5, Confidence: 0.3, ContextRelevance: 0.5},
+				Confidence: 0.3, SourceEvents: []ids.ID{ev.ID, it.SourceEvent},
+				Evidence: []events.EvidenceRef{{Kind: "event", ID: string(it.SourceEvent), Note: "earlier"}, {Kind: "event", ID: string(ev.ID), Note: "later"}}})
+		}
+	}
+	return out, nil
+}
+
+func toSet(ws []string) map[string]struct{} {
+	m := make(map[string]struct{}, len(ws))
+	for _, w := range ws {
+		m[w] = struct{}{}
+	}
+	return m
+}