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feat: add beliefs with evidence-derived confidence, contradictions and corrections

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Phase 6. Beliefs are propositions with a prior set by epistemic kind and a
confidence computed from typed evidence: sigmoid(logit(prior) + slope ×
(support × diversity − opposition)), where support from a single source
is discounted so repetition cannot manufacture certainty, and bounds keep
the mind away from absolute certainty. Every evaluation stores its
breakdown and appends a version row protected by the append-only
trigger; the belief page shows the arithmetic, evidence for and against,
alternatives, contradictions and history.

Contradiction detection is deterministic first (negation plus token
overlap): a hit emits contradiction_detected, links both beliefs and
makes each counter-evidence for the other so both trend to contested.
Operators can assert beliefs (their statement is the evidence), add
evidence, mark a belief wrong (pinned rejected, history kept) and forbid
an inference; do-not-infer corrections block matching hypotheses.
Retracting a memory retracts the evidence that cited it and re-evaluates
the beliefs concerned.

The associate process proposes low-confidence causal hypotheses from
co-occurring notable observations, and the hypothesis handler turns
admitted ones into beliefs with automatic alternatives, closing demo
scenarios 1 and 2 without any model call.
This commit is contained in:
Andy Dixon
2026-06-21 22:14:12 +01:00
parent 03631e5685
commit 73e5753a91
29 changed files with 2344 additions and 20 deletions
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migrations/0006_beliefs.down.sql
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DROP TABLE IF EXISTS corrections;
DROP TABLE IF EXISTS belief_links;
DROP TABLE IF EXISTS belief_alternatives;
DROP TABLE IF EXISTS belief_evidence;
DROP TABLE IF EXISTS belief_versions;
DROP TABLE IF EXISTS beliefs;
migrations/0006_beliefs.up.sql
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-- Beliefs with provenance: evidence for/against, alternatives, append-only
-- version history, contradiction links and operator corrections.
CREATE TABLE beliefs (
id uuid PRIMARY KEY,
mind_id uuid NOT NULL REFERENCES minds(id),
proposition text NOT NULL,
subject text NOT NULL DEFAULT '',
epistemic text NOT NULL,
status text NOT NULL CHECK (status IN ('hypothesis','tentative','likely','accepted','contested','rejected','superseded')),
confidence double precision NOT NULL CHECK (confidence >= 0 AND confidence <= 1),
prior double precision NOT NULL DEFAULT 0.5,
version integer NOT NULL DEFAULT 1,
source text NOT NULL DEFAULT '',
detail jsonb NOT NULL DEFAULT '{}'::jsonb,
origin_event uuid,
superseded_by uuid REFERENCES beliefs(id),
pinned_status text, -- operator override (e.g. rejected); NULL = derived
first_created timestamptz NOT NULL DEFAULT now(),
last_evaluated timestamptz NOT NULL DEFAULT now(),
evaluations integer NOT NULL DEFAULT 1,
search tsvector GENERATED ALWAYS AS (to_tsvector('english', proposition)) STORED
);
CREATE INDEX beliefs_mind_status_idx ON beliefs (mind_id, status, confidence DESC);
CREATE INDEX beliefs_mind_subject_idx ON beliefs (mind_id, subject);
CREATE INDEX beliefs_search_idx ON beliefs USING gin (search);
CREATE TABLE belief_versions (
id uuid PRIMARY KEY,
belief_id uuid NOT NULL REFERENCES beliefs(id),
mind_id uuid NOT NULL REFERENCES minds(id),
version integer NOT NULL,
status text NOT NULL,
confidence double precision NOT NULL,
proposition text NOT NULL,
reason text NOT NULL DEFAULT '',
breakdown jsonb NOT NULL DEFAULT '{}'::jsonb,
event_id uuid,
created_at timestamptz NOT NULL DEFAULT now(),
UNIQUE (belief_id, version)
);
CREATE TRIGGER belief_versions_append_only BEFORE UPDATE OR DELETE ON belief_versions
FOR EACH ROW EXECUTE FUNCTION noema_forbid_change();
CREATE TABLE belief_evidence (
id uuid PRIMARY KEY,
belief_id uuid NOT NULL REFERENCES beliefs(id),
mind_id uuid NOT NULL REFERENCES minds(id),
direction text NOT NULL CHECK (direction IN ('for','against')),
kind text NOT NULL, -- event | memory | belief | prediction | operator | note
ref_id text NOT NULL DEFAULT '',
source text NOT NULL DEFAULT '',
weight double precision NOT NULL CHECK (weight > 0 AND weight <= 1),
credibility double precision NOT NULL CHECK (credibility >= 0 AND credibility <= 1),
note text NOT NULL DEFAULT '',
event_id uuid,
retracted boolean NOT NULL DEFAULT false,
created_at timestamptz NOT NULL DEFAULT now()
);
CREATE INDEX belief_evidence_belief_idx ON belief_evidence (belief_id);
CREATE INDEX belief_evidence_ref_idx ON belief_evidence (kind, ref_id);
CREATE TABLE belief_alternatives (
id uuid PRIMARY KEY,
belief_id uuid NOT NULL REFERENCES beliefs(id),
mind_id uuid NOT NULL REFERENCES minds(id),
proposition text NOT NULL,
confidence double precision NOT NULL DEFAULT 0.2,
note text NOT NULL DEFAULT '',
status text NOT NULL DEFAULT 'open' CHECK (status IN ('open','dismissed','promoted')),
created_at timestamptz NOT NULL DEFAULT now()
);
CREATE INDEX belief_alternatives_belief_idx ON belief_alternatives (belief_id);
CREATE TABLE belief_links (
id uuid PRIMARY KEY,
mind_id uuid NOT NULL REFERENCES minds(id),
from_id uuid NOT NULL REFERENCES beliefs(id),
to_id uuid NOT NULL REFERENCES beliefs(id),
relation text NOT NULL, -- contradicts | supports | alternative_to | derived_from
confidence double precision NOT NULL DEFAULT 0.5,
event_id uuid,
created_at timestamptz NOT NULL DEFAULT now(),
UNIQUE (from_id, to_id, relation)
);
CREATE INDEX belief_links_to_idx ON belief_links (to_id);
-- Operator corrections. Append-only: a correction can be superseded by another
-- correction but never erased (spec §40).
CREATE TABLE corrections (
id uuid PRIMARY KEY,
mind_id uuid NOT NULL REFERENCES minds(id),
kind text NOT NULL CHECK (kind IN ('belief_wrong','memory_inaccurate','entities_same','entities_different','do_not_infer')),
target_kind text NOT NULL DEFAULT '',
target_id text NOT NULL DEFAULT '',
statement text NOT NULL DEFAULT '',
reason text NOT NULL DEFAULT '',
created_by text NOT NULL DEFAULT '',
event_id uuid,
created_at timestamptz NOT NULL DEFAULT now()
);
CREATE INDEX corrections_mind_kind_idx ON corrections (mind_id, kind);
CREATE TRIGGER corrections_append_only BEFORE UPDATE OR DELETE ON corrections
FOR EACH ROW EXECUTE FUNCTION noema_forbid_change();