feat: add goals, drives, affect state, predictions and curiosity

Phase 9. Goals form a mind-scoped tree with kind, priority, progress and
blockers; their deterministic relevance to a candidate feeds the
goal_relevance attention feature and a goal monitor raises stalled goals
and observations that touch one. Drives are a closed set of eight
scalars with operator-configured ranges and personality-derived
baselines; there is no self-preservation, replication or acquisition
drive and no way to add one at runtime. Affect is ten scalars moved by an
explicit rule table over events and decaying towards baseline; both
modulate attention weights each cycle and the effective weights are
recorded with every cycle and shown beside the configured ones.

Predictions carry a window and machine-checkable criteria (event terms
occurring or staying absent, a belief reaching a confidence, or operator
judgement). A resolver job judges them deterministically, keeps an
append-only outcome history for calibration (accuracy, Brier score,
confidence buckets, overconfidence flag), emits prediction_error events
scaled by how confident the miss was, and feeds the outcome back into the
linked belief as evidence. Causal hypotheses derive predictions
automatically. Curiosity turns misses, contradictions and unexplained
observations into questions that compete for attention and become
investigation goals when admitted.

Brain gains after-cycle hooks and goal/motivation state. API, UI (goals,
prediction dashboard, cognitive state panel, effective weights) and CLI
(goal, prediction, state). Demo scenario 4 verified end to end.

web/templates/pages/predictions.html

@@ -0,0 +1,50 @@
+{{define "content"}}
+{{$m := .Data.Mind}}{{$c := .Data.Calibration}}
+<div class="pagehead mindhead"><div><h1>{{$m.DisplayName}} <span class="muted small">predictions</span></h1><p class="muted">Explicit expectations with windows and checkable criteria. Misses become prediction errors that lower the linked belief.</p></div></div>
+{{template "mind_tabs" (dict "M" $m "Active" "predictions")}}
+<section class="grid cols-4">
+  <div class="card stat"><div class="stat-label">Open</div><div class="stat-value">{{index .Data.Stats "open"}}</div></div>
+  <div class="card stat"><div class="stat-label">Accuracy</div><div class="stat-value">{{if $c.Total}}{{pct $c.Accuracy}}{{else}}—{{end}}</div><div class="muted small">{{$c.Confirmed}} confirmed · {{$c.Refuted}} refuted · {{$c.Expired}} expired (90 days)</div></div>
+  <div class="card stat"><div class="stat-label">Brier score</div><div class="stat-value">{{if $c.Total}}{{conf $c.Brier}}{{else}}—{{end}}</div><div class="muted small">0 is perfect, 0.25 is chance</div></div>
+  <div class="card stat"><div class="stat-label">Calibration</div><div class="stat-value small">{{if $c.Overconfident}}<span class="warn">overconfident</span>{{else if $c.Total}}<span class="ok">in range</span>{{else}}—{{end}}</div></div>
+</section>
+<section class="grid cols-3-1">
+  <div class="stack">
+    <div class="card">
+      <h2>Calibration by stated confidence</h2>
+      {{if $c.Total}}<table class="table compact"><thead><tr><th>Stated</th><th class="num">n</th><th class="num">Mean stated</th><th class="num">Actual hit rate</th><th>Gap</th></tr></thead>
+        <tbody>{{range $c.Buckets}}<tr><td>{{.Label}}</td><td class="num">{{.Count}}</td><td class="num">{{if .Count}}{{conf .MeanConf}}{{else}}—{{end}}</td><td class="num">{{if .Count}}{{conf .HitRate}}{{else}}—{{end}}</td>
+          <td>{{if .Count}}<div class="cal"><span class="cal-bar" style="width:{{pct .MeanConf}}"></span><span class="cal-hit" style="left:{{pct .HitRate}}"></span></div>{{end}}</td></tr>{{end}}</tbody></table>
+      <p class="muted small">Bar: mean stated confidence. Marker: fraction that came true. A well-calibrated mind has the marker at the end of the bar.</p>
+      {{else}}<p class="muted">No resolved predictions yet.</p>{{end}}
+    </div>
+    <div class="card">
+      <h2>Predictions</h2>
+      {{if .Data.Predictions}}<table class="table compact"><thead><tr><th>Status</th><th>Statement</th><th class="num">Conf</th><th>Window</th><th>Criteria</th><th></th></tr></thead>
+        <tbody>{{range .Data.Predictions}}<tr>
+          <td><span class="badge ps-{{.Status}}">{{.Status}}</span></td>
+          <td>{{.Statement}}<div class="small muted">{{.Source}}{{if .BeliefID}} · <a href="/minds/{{$m.Slug}}/beliefs/{{.BeliefID}}">belief</a>{{end}}{{if .OriginEvent}} · <a href="/events/{{.OriginEvent}}">origin</a>{{end}}{{if .Resolution}} · {{payloadField .Resolution "reason"}}{{end}}</div></td>
+          <td class="num">{{conf .Confidence}}</td><td class="small nowrap">{{.WindowStart.Local.Format "01-02 15:04"}} → {{.WindowEnd.Local.Format "01-02 15:04"}}</td>
+          <td class="small mono">{{.Criteria.Kind}}{{if .Criteria.Terms}} {{.Criteria.Expect}}: {{range .Criteria.Terms}}{{.}} {{end}}{{end}}</td>
+          <td class="nowrap">{{if and (eq .Status "open") ($.Principal.User.Role.AtLeast "operator")}}<form method="post" action="/minds/{{$m.Slug}}/predictions/{{.ID}}/resolve" class="inline"><input type="hidden" name="_csrf" value="{{$.CSRF}}"><button class="btn small" name="outcome" value="confirmed">✓</button><button class="btn small" name="outcome" value="refuted">✗</button><button class="btn small btn-ghost" name="outcome" value="withdrawn">withdraw</button></form>{{end}}</td>
+        </tr>{{end}}</tbody></table>
+      {{else}}<p class="muted">None yet. Causal hypotheses create predictions automatically; operators can add them here.</p>{{end}}
+    </div>
+  </div>
+  {{if .Principal.User.Role.AtLeast "operator"}}
+  <div class="card">
+    <h2>New prediction</h2>
+    <form method="post" action="/minds/{{$m.Slug}}/predictions" class="stack">
+      <input type="hidden" name="_csrf" value="{{.CSRF}}">
+      <label>Statement <textarea name="statement" rows="2" required maxlength="1000" placeholder="server-01 will remain healthy for 24 hours"></textarea></label>
+      <label class="slider"><span>Confidence</span><input type="range" name="confidence" min="0.05" max="0.95" step="0.05" value="0.7" data-out><output>0.7</output></label>
+      <label>Window (hours) <input type="number" name="hours" min="1" max="8760" value="24"></label>
+      <label>Criteria <select name="kind"><option value="event_match">event terms</option><option value="operator">operator judges</option></select></label>
+      <div class="grid cols-2 tight"><label>Expect <select name="expect"><option value="occurs">terms occur</option><option value="absent">terms stay absent</option></select></label>
+      <label>Terms <input name="terms" placeholder="server-01, fail" maxlength="200"></label></div>
+      <div><button class="btn btn-primary" type="submit">Predict</button></div>
+    </form>
+  </div>
+  {{end}}
+</section>
+{{end}}