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feat(beliefs): state what a score means; gated calibration; primary uncertainty

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Every breakdown now carries its meaning: an uncalibrated epistemic score
derived from recorded evidence, not a probability of truth. Belief detail
adds a calibrated estimate read from the mind's resolved predictions when
at least twenty were decided in the score's range, and otherwise says why
none is shown; and names the primary uncertainty deterministically (no live
evidence, conflicting evidence, second-hand only, unclear reading, a single
source family, little evidence). The belief list heading becomes Score.
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Andy Dixon
2026-08-09 19:14:53 +01:00
parent 08a265f0fa
commit b661496128
8 changed files with 167 additions and 3 deletions
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docs/site/pages/beliefs.md
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@@ -8,7 +8,7 @@ A belief starts from a prior set by its epistemic kind (a hypothesis at 0.25, a
confidence = sigmoid( logit(prior) + 1.5 × (for × diversity − against) )
```
where `for` and `against` are the sums of family contributions and `diversity` rises from 0.6 for a single family to 1.0 for three or more. The result is bounded to [0.02, 0.98]: a mind is never certain and never certain of the negation. Every evidence row carries its derivation, family and root ids; the breakdown, family by family, is stored with every version and shown on the belief page. Rows written before provenance was recorded are marked as legacy and grouped by their source string; no ancestry is invented for them.
where `for` and `against` are the sums of family contributions and `diversity` rises from 0.6 for a single family to 1.0 for three or more. The result is bounded to [0.02, 0.98]: a mind is never certain and never certain of the negation. The number is an **uncalibrated epistemic score**, not a probability of truth; the belief page also shows a calibrated estimate drawn from the mind's resolved predictions when at least twenty were decided in the same range, and names the primary uncertainty (a single source family, second-hand only, conflicting evidence, little evidence, an unclear reading). Every evidence row carries its derivation, family and root ids; the breakdown, family by family, is stored with every version and shown on the belief page. Rows written before provenance was recorded are marked as legacy and grouped by their source string; no ancestry is invented for them.
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