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feat(beliefs): source reliability by domain, never global

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A source's track record is kept per (evidence family, belief subject) and
updated only by outcomes: predictions derived from a belief resolving, and
operators marking a belief wrong. With three or more outcomes in a domain
the record adjusts the credibility of that source's new evidence in that
domain, and the adjustment is written on the evidence row. Standing in one
domain never moves standing in another, and the trust-level credibility
constants are never rewritten. Migration 0021 is additive; belief pages
show each cited family's record in the belief's domain.
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Andy Dixon
2026-08-10 23:14:38 +01:00
parent 7821d89cf5
commit cff87af28d
10 changed files with 256 additions and 7 deletions
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@@ -72,6 +72,10 @@ Derived from the breakdown unless an operator pinned it:
- `rejected` below 0.15; `hypothesis` for hypotheses without support or below 0.5; `tentative` below 0.7; `likely` below 0.85; `accepted` above;
- `superseded` when replaced by a newer proposition.
## Source reliability by domain
A source's track record is kept per (family, domain), where the domain is the belief's subject. It is updated only by outcomes: a prediction derived from a belief resolving (confirmed counts as right, refuted or expired as wrong, for every primary supporting family of that belief) and an operator marking a belief wrong. With at least three outcomes in a domain the record adjusts the credibility of that source's new evidence *in that domain*: neutral leaves it alone, a perfect record raises it by half, a hopeless one halves it; the adjustment is written into the evidence note. A person wrong three times about database internals keeps their full credibility about their own diary. The trust-level credibility (operator, user, system, tool, source, low) is never rewritten.
## Temporal scope
Every belief has a `temporal_scope`: `persistent` (a fact without an interval: "atlas is the primary host", "Andy prefers Go"), `transient` (a state that can change: "the door is open", "server A is down") or `unknown` when the deterministic classifier (`ClassifyScope`) cannot tell. Transient beliefs record `observed_at` and `valid_from`.