Andy Dixon
0071658c93
Every evidence row now records its derivation (direct, assertion, operator, external, prediction, consolidation, inference, reflection, dream, retrieval), its independent-source family (an actor, an integration, an operator, a prediction) and its root event or memory ids. Confidence groups evidence by family: the strongest primary item counts in full, each further primary item adds a quarter, capped at 1.5x, and derived items count only when the family has no primary member. Three derived re-expressions of one utterance therefore weigh exactly what the utterance weighs, while three independent families still add up. Producers (conversation, association, consolidation, predictions, metacognition, dreaming, operator and seed input, contradictions) supply their ancestry. Existing rows are marked legacy_unknown with family = source; nothing is invented. The belief page shows per-family contributions and the replay test checks that provenance is reconstructed identically in the sandbox. Migration 0017 is additive.
3.3 KiB
Beliefs are the mind's propositions about the world, each with a confidence that is derived from evidence rather than asserted. This page gives the arithmetic, the lifecycle and the operator controls.
Confidence
A belief starts from a prior set by its epistemic kind (a hypothesis at 0.25, a claim at 0.50, a fact at 0.80; the full table is under concepts). Evidence is then grouped by family, the independent source a row ultimately rests on: a person, an integration, an operator, a prediction. Within a family the strongest primary item counts in full, each further primary item adds a quarter, and the total is capped at one and a half times the strongest; derived items (a consolidated memory, an inference, a reflection, a dream, a recalled memory) count only when the family has no primary item at all, because they re-express information rather than corroborate it. The confidence is
confidence = sigmoid( logit(prior) + 1.5 × (for × diversity − against) )
where for and against are the sums of family contributions and diversity rises from 0.6 for a single family to 1.0 for three or more. The result is bounded to [0.02, 0.98]: a mind is never certain and never certain of the negation. Every evidence row carries its derivation, family and root ids; the breakdown, family by family, is stored with every version and shown on the belief page. Rows written before provenance was recorded are marked as legacy and grouped by their source string; no ancestry is invented for them.
Statuses
hypothesis (below 0.35), tentative, likely, accepted (above 0.85), contested (significant evidence on both sides), rejected (retracted by evidence or an operator) and superseded (replaced by a corrected proposition). Status follows confidence and evidence shape automatically; an operator can pin rejected.
Contradictions
A deterministic detector compares new propositions with existing ones on the same subject using negation patterns and lexical overlap. A detected contradiction creates a contradiction_detected event, links the two beliefs, marks both contested when the evidence is comparable, and gives curiosity something to ask about. Contradictions are never resolved by picking the newer statement; they are resolved by evidence, or by an operator.
Alternatives and links
A belief may carry alternative propositions (hypothesis generation always includes "these are unrelated"). Beliefs link to each other with supports, contradicts and depends_on, which the interface renders and which re-evaluation follows.
Evidence kinds
Evidence points at memories, events, operator statements, tool results, predictions and other beliefs, with a direction, a weight, a note and the source's credibility. Retracting a memory retracts the evidence rows that cite it and re-evaluates the affected beliefs. Prediction outcomes add evidence automatically: a refuted prediction weakens the beliefs it was derived from.
Operator corrections
From the belief page or noemactl belief wrong, an operator can mark a belief wrong (operator counter-evidence at high credibility), retract it outright, or attach a "do not infer" correction that prevents the same proposition being re-derived by consolidation or association. Every correction is an event, an audit entry and, for the mind, an autobiographical memory.
{{include docs/beliefs.md}}