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feat(evidence): record provenance and stop derived evidence counting as corroboration

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Every evidence row now records its derivation (direct, assertion, operator,
external, prediction, consolidation, inference, reflection, dream,
retrieval), its independent-source family (an actor, an integration, an
operator, a prediction) and its root event or memory ids. Confidence
groups evidence by family: the strongest primary item counts in full, each
further primary item adds a quarter, capped at 1.5x, and derived items
count only when the family has no primary member. Three derived
re-expressions of one utterance therefore weigh exactly what the utterance
weighs, while three independent families still add up.

Producers (conversation, association, consolidation, predictions,
metacognition, dreaming, operator and seed input, contradictions) supply
their ancestry. Existing rows are marked legacy_unknown with family =
source; nothing is invented. The belief page shows per-family
contributions and the replay test checks that provenance is reconstructed
identically in the sandbox. Migration 0017 is additive.
This commit is contained in:
Andy Dixon
2026-07-31 21:14:52 +01:00
parent d86740af89
commit 0071658c93
18 changed files with 394 additions and 48 deletions
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docs/site/pages/beliefs.md
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@@ -2,13 +2,13 @@ Beliefs are the mind's propositions about the world, each with a confidence that
## Confidence
A belief starts from a prior set by its epistemic kind (a hypothesis at 0.25, a claim at 0.50, a fact at 0.80; the full table is under [concepts](concepts)). Each piece of evidence contributes its weight multiplied by the credibility of its source, for or against. Confidence is
A belief starts from a prior set by its epistemic kind (a hypothesis at 0.25, a claim at 0.50, a fact at 0.80; the full table is under [concepts](concepts)). Evidence is then grouped by **family**, the independent source a row ultimately rests on: a person, an integration, an operator, a prediction. Within a family the strongest primary item counts in full, each further primary item adds a quarter, and the total is capped at one and a half times the strongest; derived items (a consolidated memory, an inference, a reflection, a dream, a recalled memory) count only when the family has no primary item at all, because they re-express information rather than corroborate it. The confidence is
```
confidence = sigmoid( logit(prior) + 1.5 × (for × diversity − against) )
```
where `diversity` rises from 0.6 for a single source to 1.0 for three or more independent sources, so repetition from one place is discounted. The result is bounded to [0.02, 0.98]: a mind is never certain and never certain of the negation. The breakdown (prior, each evidence row, the diversity factor, the formula) is stored with every version and shown on the belief page.
where `for` and `against` are the sums of family contributions and `diversity` rises from 0.6 for a single family to 1.0 for three or more. The result is bounded to [0.02, 0.98]: a mind is never certain and never certain of the negation. Every evidence row carries its derivation, family and root ids; the breakdown, family by family, is stored with every version and shown on the belief page. Rows written before provenance was recorded are marked as legacy and grouped by their source string; no ancestry is invented for them.
## Statuses