feat(beliefs): temporal scope and validity; state changes supersede rather than contradict

Beliefs gain a temporal scope (persistent, transient or unknown, classified deterministically from the proposition), an observation time and, for transient states, a validity interval. When a newer belief conflicts with an older transient one observed at least a minute earlier, the older belief is closed (valid_until set, status superseded, a supersedes link, a version and an event saying 'state changed') with its score untouched: 'the door was open at 10:00' stays true of 10:00 when it is closed at 10:05. Simultaneous conflicting reports and persistent propositions contradict as before. Introspection lists superseded states with their validity. Migration 0020 is additive.
2026-08-09 21:42:19 +01:00
parent b661496128
commit 7821d89cf5
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@@ -6,6 +6,7 @@
  <p class="score-line"><strong>Epistemic score {{conf $b.Confidence}}</strong> <span class="muted small">(uncalibrated: derived from recorded evidence, not a probability of truth)</span>
    · calibrated: {{if $d.Calibration.Available}}<strong>{{conf $d.Calibration.Estimate}}</strong> <span class="muted small">(hit rate of {{$d.Calibration.SampleSize}} decided predictions in this range)</span>{{else}}<span class="muted small">not available ({{$d.Calibration.Reason}})</span>{{end}}
    · main uncertainty: <span class="muted">{{$d.PrimaryUncertainty}}</span></p>
+  <p class="muted small">temporal scope <span class="badge small">{{$b.TemporalScope}}</span>{{with $b.ObservedAt}} · observed {{date .}}{{end}}{{with $b.ValidFrom}} · valid from {{date .}}{{end}}{{with $b.ValidUntil}} · <strong>until {{date .}}</strong> (superseded by a later observation; this remained true of its time){{end}}</p>
  <p class="muted">{{$b.Epistemic}} · version {{$b.Version}} · first {{date $b.FirstCreated}} · evaluated {{$b.Evaluations}}× · source {{$b.Source}}{{if $b.Subject}} · subject <span class="mono">{{$b.Subject}}</span>{{end}}{{if $b.PinnedStatus}} · <span class="badge warn">status pinned by operator</span>{{end}}</p>
 </div>
 <section class="grid cols-3-1">